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The evening of every trading day Positive Territory provides the
Daily Abbreviated Report that shows that
evening’s selections. We also issue the 2W43
Report that shows issues that have two of our three TAI
selection criteria and at what price that third TAI will turn
positive. The idea is that if the issue reaches that price before
the next day’s close you can acquire the issue toward the
end of tomorrow instead of at the open the next day. “2W43”
was our shorthand for “two waiting for three”.
Remember, to be included on 2W43 an issue has to have two positive
TAI already. So, if an issue only has one, and the other TWO turn
positive after the close that issue might be listed on that night’s
DAR, but not have been listed on the
2W43 from yesterday.
Understanding report timing relationships
Here is an example starting Monday evening and ending
Wednesday before noon.
Monday 4/3/2006
About 6pm, Monday’s DAR and 20060403-2W43.CSV
reports are issued. The DAR indicates our selections that evening.
The 2W43 report shows which issues have two positive TAI and,
given a price target, could have the third turn positive tomorrow.
Tuesday 4/4/2006
About 2pm central time the 2W43-NRT.CSV report is issued. It shows
how the issues from last night’s 2W43 report are doing in
progressing toward their price targets. You have just under an
hour to make purchases before the market closes.
About 6pm, Tuesday’s DAR and
Tuesday’s 20060403-2W43.CSV reports are issued
Wednesday 4/5/2006
8:30am the market opens and this is your first chance to purchase
issues based on the DAR from last night.
So, the 2W43 and the companion NRT
(for “near real time”) make it possible
to identify selections before the market close. If there is an overnight
price rise that gain winds up in your pocket. It is
important to remember that Tuesday’s NRT report includes only
those issues from the Monday evening’s 2W43 report.
THE 2W43 REPORT
Sample 2W43
Email and Sample
2W43 CSV File (15kb)
This report is available only in the comma separated variable (CSV)
format.
Issues are selected from active
issues with:
Two of our three indicators (DPO,
MACD and TRIX
) are already positive and
SMA(20)(Volume) > 1,000,000 and
SMA(50)(Close) > $5
Notice that this selection does NOT show all potential selections.
To be listed on 2W43 two of the three base TAI have to already be
positive. So, if an issue only has one, and the other two turn positive
after the close that issue might be listed on that night’s
DAR, but not the previous 2W43. The report
is sorted on A-ATRCM (see fields below) from highest to lowest.
The 2W43 Report Fields
Issue
The symbol
used to identify a particular issue.
Target
This is the price at which the “needed” TAI will turn
positive. As for which is the TAI “needed”, see DPO,
MACD and TRIX below.
Closing
This is the closing price.
P_Delta
The is the price difference between the closing and target. Specifically
(target_price – closing_price). It is entirely possible that
this could be a negative number if the closing price was already
above the target price. Well, if that is the case then why isn’t
the indicator already positive? Read the details on the indicators.
In many cases for that indicator to turn positive it isn’t
a single day’s price, but a history of prices. The way to
understand a negative number is to realize that the price of the
issues is already high enough, but can it stay high enough long
enough?
P_Reqd
This is the required change expressed as a percentage. Specifically
(P_Delta / Closing_Price). Remember, this will be shown as a decimal
value. So if the target is 100, the closing price 80, then P_Delta
will be 20 (100-80) and P_Reqd will be 25% (20 / 80) shown as 0.25.
Phrasing it in English, the price has to rise 25% from the close
to achieve the target.
Could this number be negative? Yes. If P_Delta is negative then
P_Reqd will be a negative.
ATR
This is the average true range of
this issue as of the close.
ATRCM
This is the Average True Range Coverage Multiple. It is a measure
of how much the ATR covers the P_Delta, the difference between target_price
and closing_price. If P_Delta is 2 and the ATR is 6 then ATRCM is
3 (ATR / P_Delta or 6 / 2).
Why is this important? If you think that ATR represents a “reasonable”
variance then it would be “reasonable” that (for the
example above) the P_Delta could be achieved.
Take another example where P_Delta is 2.00 and the ATR is 0.25.
Then ATRCM is 0.125 (0.25 / 2.00). In this case it would be less
likely that the price would rise enough from closing price to target
price to achieve the target price.
Can ATRCM be negative? Yes, if P_Delta is negative then ATRCM will
be negative.
A-ATRCM
This is the absolute
value of ATRCM (see above). The report is sorted on this field.
So those at the top of the list have a higher absolute coverage
multiple than the ones below.
RATR
This is the relative
average true range as of the day’s close.
TRIX, MACD and DPO
For each of these there will be one of three possible values.
“=CPD” meaning that this TAI was a Cumulative
Positive Development
“=NPD” meaning that this TAI was a New
Positive Development
“=needed” meaning that we are waiting for this TAI
to turn positive.
There
will be only one TAI “needed”
THE 2W43-NRT REPORT
Sample
2W43-NRT Alert Email and Sample
2W43-NRT CSV File (9kb)
NRT is for “near real time”.
This is an update showing the progress of the issues from last night’s
2W43 report toward their target price. In column A we show the run
date and time in yyyy-mm-dd-hhmm format. Unlike DAR and 2W43 where
the date is part of the file name, the 2W43-NRT report uses the
same file name over and over. The 2W43-NRT report is not archived.
This report is available only in the comma separated variable (CSV)
format. The report is sorted on Percent_Achieved (see fields below)
from highest to lowest.
The 2W43-NRT Report Fields
Issue
The symbol
used to identify a particular issue.
Target_Price
This is the price at which the “needed” TAI will turn
positive. As for which is the TAI needed, see DPO, MACD and TRIX
below. This is the same as target in the 2W43 report.
Last_Price
This is the last price of the issue before the report was prepared.
It is highly likely the price will change from this value before
the market closes.
Percent_Achieved
This is (Last_Price) / (Target_Price). So if the target price was
80 and the last price was 100 the Percent_Achieved would be 125%.
Remember, this is expressed as 1.25 in a CSV
file. The NRT report is sorted on Percent_Achieved, descending.
ATR
This is the average true range of
this issue as of the last close. It has not been
re-calculated from last night’s 2W43 report.
ATRCM
This is the Average True Range Coverage Multiple as of the
last close. It has not been re-calculated from last night’s
2W43 report. It is a measure of how much the ATR covers the P_Delta,
the spread between target_price and closing_price.
If P_Delta is 2 and the ATR is 6 then ATRCM is 3 (ATR / P_Delta
or 6 / 2).
Why is this important? If you think that ATR represents an “reasonable”
variance then it would be “reasonable” that (for this
example) the P_Delta could be achieved. Another example P_Delta
is 2.00 and the ATR is 0.25 then ATRCM is 0.125 (0.25 / 2.00). In
this case it would be more unlikely that the price would change
enough to rise from closing price to target price.
Why is this important? If you think that ATR represents a “reasonable”
variance then it would be “reasonable” that (for the
example above) the P_Delta could be achieved.
Take another example where P_Delta is 2.00 and the ATR is 0.25.
Then ATRCM is 0.125 (0.25 / 2.00). In this case it would be less
likely that the price would rise enough from closing price to target
price to achieve the target price.
Can ATRCM be negative? Yes, if P_Delta is negative then ATRCM will
be negative.
A-ATRCM
This is the absolute
value of ATRCM (see above) as of the last close.
It has not been re-calculated from last night’s 2W43 report.
RATR
This is the relative
average true range as of the last close. It
has not been re-calculated from last night’s 2W43 report.
TRIX, MACD and DPO
These are the same as from last night’s 2W43 report.
“=CPD” meaning that this TAI was a Cumulative
Positive Development
“=NPD” meaning that this TAI was a New
Positive Development
“=needed” meaning that we are waiting for this TAI
to turn positive.
There
will be only one TAI “needed”
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